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Following the release of the draft South Australian redistribution boundaries yesterday, we can now put together a pendulum of all seat margins for the next election. This pendulum uses the actual election margins for New South Wales and Western Australia, and the final post-redistribution margins for Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory, as well as the post-redistribution margins for the draft boundaries for Victoria, South Australia and the ACT.
Ive included this pendulum below the fold, but you can also find it at this link. Ive now posted the pendulum, along with a list of seats in alphabetical order and a list of seats by state, on the federal election guide. There are now twenty seat guides posted there, and I will keep posting at least one per day for the foreseeable future. The pendulum below wont keep getting updated with fresh links but does include the twenty so far.
The only update since yesterdays post is that I calculated two-candidate-preferred margins between the Liberal Party and the Nick Xenophon Team in Barker, Grey and Mayo. In these three seats, I calculated what proportion of primary votes for all other parties flowed to either of these two parties in the final count in those parts of the seat where NXT made the top two. Some areas were swapped back and forth between Grey and Barker, so they were included as if they had always been in the seat. This proportion was then applied to the remaining primary votes.
The figures are:
These are all shifts towards the NXT, but they should come with a grain of salt. They fit with the overall trend of the Liberal Party not losing any seats but having all of their seats become more marginal.
|Coalition Seats||Labor Seats|
A family of five lives in the Middleton house. At Easter, my wife and I made it seven. The house is off-grid and off main water. On Low Island, a caretaker and several volunteers inhabit three houses and research the reef, take weather observations and look after the lighthouse. Again it is off the grid and there is obviously no mains water. The lighthouse is also run off solar power.
Imagine not getting an electricity or water bill.
There are some slight inconveniences: fewer power-guzzling appliances like hair-dryers and microwaves and a bit of battery monitoring.
The Middleton house is fairly new, so it was a no-brainer to install solar-power generation compared to the Immediate and future cost of connecting to the grid and using mains power.
The trend is clear. Appliances will get more efficient. Batteries, solar panels and domestic wind turbines will get cheaper and more powerful.
Meanwhile, the absurdly named Monash Forum of climate-science denying Federal MPs wants to perpetuate coal-fired electricity generation. Led by the Triple As Abbott, Andrews and Abetz and joined by Barnaby Joyce, it has engaged in one of the most profound about-faces in recent Australian political history, especially the Liberal Party members.
The Liberal Party was founded on the basis of free-enterprise, respect for private property, the market, states rights, small government and opposition to nationalisation.
In the partys own words: We believe . . . that, wherever possible, government should not compete with an efficient private sector; and . . . in preserving Australias natural beauty and the environment for future generations.
Now some or all of the Monash MPs have argued for the Government to prevent a private company, AGL, dealing with its property as it sees fit by closing the Liddell power station when it wants to, nationalising the asset if necessary. They want the Federal Government to override states and territorie...
I have a chum in Cairns, massive Toronto Maple Leafs fan, who wanted me to find him a spot to watch the NHL Playoffs at 9am local time. Can anyone kindly suggest locations for him to watch the game? Are there any pubs that typically show NHL playoffs in Cairns? Any help would be greatly appreciated.
On Wednesday 11 April, the Queensland Police
Service (Airwing) (State of Queensland) Pilatus Britten-Norman
BN-2A Islander VH-PSX was noted arriving into Rockhampton Airport
from its Cairns Airport base.
In my last post, I considered the Queensland construction industry outlook. In todays post, I take advantage of new data on building approvals at the small area level (ABS SA2 regions) for 2017-18 so far released by the ABS yesterday. The chart below of the top 20 Queensland small areas by the value of building approvals shows South Brisbane and South Townsville leading the state. Residential approvals dominate in South Brisbane, while non-residential approvals, no doubt mainly related to the $250 million North Queensland Stadium development, dominate in South Townsville.
Within the Brisbane metro region (see map below), we again see the familiar pattern of development being concentrated in the inner city and outer-lying areas, partly due to constraints on development such as heritage protection in many Brisbane suburbs, as discussed in Bradley Rogerss 2013 QEW guest post...
Bryan died in 2013 in March so this site has become an archive site where we are keeping the work of his later life.Bryan Law, centre, partly obscured, awaits the back-hoe at the Daintree Blockade 1984? 1985?
There are many documents and actions recorded on this extensive Peace by Peace site from the Pine Gap and early Peace by Peace work through to the Ploughshares Action 2011 and Trial 2013.
Bryan was a great record keeper and we have the stories of a long, varied and creative activist career.
Some of his earlier work we are collecting on Evernote and we are looking for a more permanent archivist and blogger and historian to take up the job of archiving and displaying so that activists can learn from what he did.
Bryans work was peculiar in that it often aimed at ordinary regional folk and he remained steadfast in his belief that it was ordinary people who will change the work through courageous action for social justice.
In the meantime, I will repost here some of the work around the
trial of Graeme Dunstan which was also really a posthumous trial
Thanks to Robin Taubenfeld and Culley Palmer for the work they did recording the trial. There are some key documents and links to include.
I have a date with the Local Court of NSW, sitting at Tweed Heads on Monday 3 December. The charge Trespass on prohibited Commonwealth land. [s89(i) of the Commonwealth Crimes Act.]
Finalising the NVDA @ HQJOC.
I remember 26 April 2012 as a fun day out at the HQJOC Headquarters Joint Operational Command, the war-fighting centre from which ADF commands our troops in the war on Afghanistan. (Are our special forces active in Syria? If so they will be commanded from HQJOC). I was arrested.
The Australian Quaker Centre at Silver Wattle is thirty minutes drive from HQOC. In April 2012 coinciding with Anzac Day Silver Wattle hosted the second gathering whose business was Putting An End to War.
On Thursday 26 April, 10 of us initiated nonviolent civil disobedience against HQJOC, as we vowed to enflesh the promise of peace that God has made us in the covenant of life.
A gaggle of "Faith Based Peace Witnesses" bring the issue to Captain Frank and Inspector Bob outside HQJOC on 26 April 2012.
Ive made a short you-tube of the action. The soundtrack includes some of the remembrance part of the action, and a police video of my little speech to the throng of assembled Commonwealth and NSW Police.
Im proud of myself for dancing into Police lines with only one thought on my mind I will not touch them first, but I will try to get through. I did not touch them first. I danced around with intent (like the Elm dance performed earlier). Police were very cooperative in arresting and charging me.
Heres the pdf put together that evening by the action group explaining what we did, and it has links to...
We made a road-trip to Rockhampton for Margarets day in Court. We caught up with a handful of Rocky locals. The Court hearing triggered a range of stories across local media, and most of the journalists were switched on to Margarets view of this charge as an act of harassment.Margaret and supporters make a little show before court.
The highlight of the hearing was testimony by press photographer Chris Ison. Chris is the senior photographer with the Rockhampton Morning Bulletin.
Margaret asked him if he regularly took photographs of defence installations as part of his work, and if he took those photographs without ADF permission. The prosecutor leapt to his feet and asked the Magistrate to warn Mr Ison that he might incriminate himself in his answer, and was under no obligation to do so.
Chris Ison is a pretty straight arrow, and confident of his own skills and values. He responded that he was happy to answer the questions. He said that he believed he had a right to take news photos. If such photos included defence installation, so be it. He strongly believed he was within his right, and saw no reason for apology or fear.Chris Ison's unauthorised pic from Rockhampton airport (say no more)...
A US Amphibious Assault Vehicle inside the Shoalwater Bay Military Training Area 20 July 2011
How does this photo get to be a criminal offence?
(a) a person enters or approaches any defence installation with sketching, drawing, photographing, or painting materials or apparatus in his or her possession; and
(b) the person has no lawful authority for that conduct; and
(c) the person intends to contravene subsection (1); (make a sketch, drawing etc)
(d) the person is guilty of an offence; and
(e) all tools and all materials or apparatus for sketching, drawing, photographing or painting found in his or her possession are forfeited and may be destroyed, sold, or otherwise disposed of, as the Governor-General directs.
(2A) The maximum penalty for an offence under subsection (2) is a fine of $100.
Margaret Pestorius is preparing to defend herself in court next Tuesday against this bogus charge, laid by Queensland Police upon complaint from the ADF (via the District Intelligence Office of Rockhampton Police).
She is responding with courage to a vicious act of harassment....
45 years ago, on 4 April 1967, at the riverside church of New York City, the rev Martin Luther King Jr explained his opposition to the war in Vietnam:
War is unjust. War kills Gods children, exploits the dispossessed, and steals from the poor. He said:
I am convinced that if we are to get on the right side of the world revolution, we as a nation must undergo a radical revolution of values. We must rapidly begin the shift from a thing-oriented society to a person-oriented society. When machines and computers, profit motives and property rights are considered more important than people, the giant triplets of racism, materialism, and militarism are incapable of being conquered.
As I look around me in the world today I see those three evil giants at play. Tearing at the fabric of life.
As a nation in 2012, Australia is being pressed into military service for Washington, the Metropolis of modern war. Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Iran, (and Israel) constitute the immediate field of operations. We are becoming embroiled in the South China Sea. We are on the path to perpetual war.
On 4 April 2012, more than 200 marines from Fox Co, 2nd Batallion, 3rd Marines arrived in Darwin to initiate a new phase of Australian war-making.
Our country is to become both a pivot, and a rear echelon base to project US power via the Indian and Pacific Oceans and into their associated states. China, India, middle east, se Asia.
Darwin, Perth, and Rockhampton are to become garrison cities for the US Empire, training and deploying forces as circumstances arise. HQJOC at Bungendore is the seat of joint command. Pine Gap outside Alice Springs remains the centre of space-based intelligence. Swan Island trains special forces.
These are six key sites through which we can address Australian support of US war-making.
What to do?...
Just outside Bungendore, in NSW, right on the ACT border.
This is probably the most secure location in Australia, Brigadier Wayne Budd told the Sun-Herald Newspaper in 2008.Google Earth photo of HQJOC
It certainly has a magnificent fenceSteel, concrete, razor wire, clear zones and lights. Part of the outer Octagonal fence of HQJOC
The main entrance of HQJOC, tailor-made for a protest action.
HQJOC is the command centre for whatever Australian military forces are active anywhere in the world. Operations in Afghanistan are run from here.
There is a proposal to initiate NVDA towards this facility on 26 April 2012. http://www.greygypsy.com/?page_id=1358
That proposal contains and relies on a residential nonviolence workshop at the Australian Quaker Centre at Silver Wattle, about 10 kilometres from HQJOC as the crow flies. http://silverwattle.org.au/about-silver-wattle/ The workshop will examine possibilities for peak NVDA involving civil disobedience. In addition to the residential workshop, it may be possible to organise a larger presence for a more low key picket at the facilitys front entrance....
Page 2 of the Australian this morning really pissed me off. It ran this story: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/defence/defence-set-to-give-us-great-military-access/story-e6frg8yo-1226130072045 US military forces being given use of Stirling Navy Base in WA, Darwin, Bradfield Training Area, Townsville Lavarack Barracks. The deal will be signed by Defence Minister Stephen Smith (among others) later this month.
Next to the article was a photo of Defence Minister Smith, launching the book An Unwinnable War: Australia in Afghanistan by Karen Middleton, and saying that well stay the course. The Herald Sun gave a fuller explanation.
This is a more detailed feature story on joint AUS/US military planning for interoperability. The AUSMIN sign-off this month is a next step.
I reckon we ought mobilise and draw attention against this manifestation of empire.
I reckon a creative, dynamic, and powerful action against HQJOC at Bungendore in April 2012 would be a very useful thing to do.
I reckon we can combine it with a prior national gathering at the Australian Quaker Centre, which would include participation at the ANZAC Eve Peace Vigil on 24 April.
What do you think?
Recorded at the East st Mall on Friday 15 July 2011.
Bryan spruiks about airport security, weapons, and the killing of children in Afghanistan. He affirms his intentions to attempt a ploughshares action. Six days after this recording, the Rockhampton Tiger Ploughshares disabled an Army attack helicopter, just like the ones in the slideshow.
On 21 July 2011, with support from Graeme Dunstan of peacebus.com, I struck an ADF Tiger helicopter with a mattock putting the narrow blade through a carbon fibre panel, and putting the helicopter out of commission.Captured from TV - Bryan Law sinks a mattock blade into the carbon fibre panelling of an ADF Tiger helicopter. July 21 2011 at Rockhampton airport.
As a result, Graeme and I have been charged with a number of indictable offences. If convicted I face a near-certain term of imprisonment, while Graeme may be able to qualify for a probation or suspended sentence (then again he may not.
Over the next month or three, Graeme and I have to think about what our legal stance ought be. It seems to be a choice between:
Running a defence based on necessity, similar to the Pine Gap defence (but hopefully better staffed by legal advisors and advocates).; or
Pleading guilty, but opening up the issues around the cost of repair.Too late! Soldiers and guards run to stop the ploughshares mattock from striking again.
Id appreciate it if you could look at the following two links, and give us the benefit of your thinking and feeling about the best course forward.
The first link is to a 2008 article by Alice Springs Legal Aid Lawyer Russell Goldflam about the trial and appeal of the Pine Gap Four.
The second link is to a piece I wrote in 2010 about lessons to be learned from the Pine Gap Four, and from the trial of the Waihopai ploughshares, where Adi Leason, Peter Murnane and Sam Land failed in the necessity defence but were acquitted of all charges due to claim of right.
One conclusion I draw in the 2010 article is By choosing targets such as airplanes, ships, tanks etc (less secret, more direct weapons systems/components), and by majorly disabling said piece of equipment, it may yet...
Excerpt Bryans CIB Interview from 8th July:
Film by Sweated Workshop Maiia
Photos by Chris Ison Rockhampton Morning BulletinBryan, arrested and taken to the watchhouse Rockhampton, 21st July 2011
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